Thoughts that just come to me...
A Republican Strategy for ‘08
Published on January 24, 2007 By Genghis Hank In Politics
Disclaimer: First, the following should be read with a grain of salt. I am not seriously advocating any of this. It’s just a “thought exorcise” designed to come up with an alternative solution to the coronation of Hillary I. Furthermore, I’m not endorsing any particular candidate. I’m just suggesting who I think would have a good shot at going up against the Democrats under these conditions.

OK, here is my take on the situation. Bush is a lame duck. He couldn’t convince the American people to vote for free milk and cookies right now. The Democrats have the house locked up, but their grip on the Senate is not tight enough to get any real agenda passed. So what does that leave us with? Two years of the Democrats positioning themselves to inherit the White House in ’08. So for the next two years, we have Congress using every trick they can think of to force Bush to abandon Iraq and basically make him into the poster child of all reasons to never vote Republican again. Meanwhile, absolutely nothing will get done either domestically or abroad that will actually help the country as opposed to one political agenda or another.

Looking ahead to ’08, Hillary is the anointed one and Obama is playing spoiler so that any more serious threats to her won’t have enough money or bandwidth (broadcast or otherwise) to mount a serious challenge. The only way a Republican can get elected in the general election is to be the anti-Bush, but none will survive the primary to get there. I don’t see how any other result can come about unless either the US starts having amazing successes abroad, or something so devastating happens to our country (for instance, the EU, China, and Russia ally and invade New York) that it changes the political equation in a very unexpected way. Unless…

Let things go the way they are. Get the House to defund the war. The ideal timetable for this would be around April or May of this year. Bush fights back by taking it to the Supreme Court protesting on the grounds that Congress is infringing on his Constitutional powers as CinC. Now assume that Bush looses. Bush and Cheney then resign in protest. That would force the Speaker of the House – Nancy Pelosi to become the President.

How exactly does this help anything? Well, first off, it places the burden of bringing the troops home on the Democrats. The resulting chaos and bloodshed will be on their hands. OK, maybe it’s the coward’s way out, but it’s one that preserves some credibility for what comes next. Second, Pelosi would be spending the first six months or so putting in place a cabinet or be forced to work with the one already in place, Condi Rice and all. Chances are, she would not be able to get any kind of agenda going for the remainder of ’07, which takes us into what is the sweetest part of this plan.

Right now, Hillary Clinton is tapping every group she and Bill can think of for cash for her election run. I can’t imagine even W at his best being able to raise the kind of money Hillary is going to throw at the ’08 election. And with Obama keeping the field thinned for her, she isn’t going to spend a lot of it in the Primary. Just think how that would change if suddenly she had to defeat an incumbent, first female President Pelosi in the Primaries. On the other hand, Nancy Pelosi would find funding harder to come by because those who would normally be counted on to back a female Democratic candidate would have already made donations and commitments to Hillary. And as an added bonus, the best and brightest of the Democratic campaign managers are going to be split between the two as well. The entire party would be forced to make a decision: The anointed one or the incumbent. And the country gets to watch one hell of a cat fight watching Pelosi and Clinton take each other apart.

The one risk is that Pelosi wouldn’t run. I think that Hillary would go through with it no matter what because she doesn’t have another 10 years to wait. But Pelosi could back out in the name of party unity. But, human nature being what it is, I’m betting that if Nancy were handed the Presidency, she couldn’t just walk away from it after such a brief spell.

OK, so where does that leave the Republicans? The script would go like this. Put up Rudy Giuliani as the anointed one for the Republican candidate. Right now, he’s leading the polls based largely on charisma and reputation for 9/11. Perhaps let it be known that someone like Newt Gengrich would be his running mate to make the candidate more palatable to the conservative base. He is perhaps the one Republican candidate who could challenge Hillary in New York. He may not be able to win the state from her, but he can force her to spend a lot of time and money there. If Pelosi came out the winner, he just might be able to take New York outright, but sacrifices any hope of California. Of course, California is probably a complete loss to any Republican right now anyway.

Giuliani should probably position himself by redefining himself as in favor of the War on Terrorism rather than the War on Terror and be prepared to contrast himself against Bush and how the war in Iraq was fought. He is probably the only Republican candidate in ‘08 who could present himself as tough on foreign policy but having differences with Bush on how the war was handled with any credibility in the minds of the voters.

I think that Giuliani’s image as a strong leader contrasted against a Pelosi-Clinton knock down drag out fight in the primaries would give the Republicans the best shot at recapturing DC in ’08.

Comments
on Jan 24, 2007
I'd love to hear your thoughts on this. But, please, keep the emotional tone to a bearable level. I admit that I took a couple of swipes at the Democrats here, and am willing to have a few tossed back, but please, keep the personal hate out of the replies.
on Jan 24, 2007
Too much Political Machine, GH.   

Interesting scenario, though.
on Jan 24, 2007
I'll be filing the papers to form an exploratory committee some time next month. That will settle the entire issue and all of the others will simply drop out of the race. Problem solved.
on Jan 25, 2007

What ifs are great, and so is this one.  But I think you put too much stock in Hillary.  She has already ham handed the Madrassa situation.  Bill was the master manipulator.  Hillary is just a shrill vindicate pol.

But I like your reasoning on Pelosi.  In addition to throwing the whole stink into the democrats lap, it would also torpedo Hillary as the "First" women president, and that in itself is worth the pain of Pelosi!

on Jan 25, 2007
Too much Political Machine, GH.


  Or maybe not enough. Maybe I should go back to playing it instead of listening to the news every day.

I'll be filing the papers to form an exploratory committee some time next month. That will settle the entire issue and all of the others will simply drop out of the race. Problem solved


 

What ifs are great, and so is this one. But I think you put too much stock in Hillary. She has already ham handed the Madrassa situation. Bill was the master manipulator. Hillary is just a shrill vindicate pol.


Maybe, but don't underestimate just how much money she and Bill can raise. With that, and with the media taking daily shots at the Bush administration, she can afford some missteps.
on Jan 27, 2007
Maybe, but don't underestimate just how much money she and Bill can raise. With that, and with the media taking daily shots at the Bush administration, she can afford some missteps.


Money doesn't always mean an election in the bag.
on Feb 06, 2007
I really feel sorry for you Republicans. Putting your party before America.

You people deserve to be in Guantanomo.

You are the real enemy combatants of this country.

Wishing to pin the worst military strategic decision in the history of this country on the Democrats.

Why you support the party who made the decision.

How stupid or un-American are you. No wonder you watch Fox.

I wished your dream would come true because you would wake up in a nightmare.

The end of the Republican party. Which Bush is doing all by himself.

If Cheney and Bush were to resign why would anyone vote for a Republican.

They can barely find a reason now.

This is whats going to happen. Bush and Cheney will be impeached.

But it wont happen until 2008.

They may resign before then but I doubt it. They have no class.

In 2008 the Dems will have even more seats. They are not going to give the Republicans a chance to say they lost the war like you wish.

Dems learn form mistakes. "No talk of guns or abortion in the 2006 elections." Republicans just ignore the ones they make and double up their bets wishing like you for a better outcome. See Vietnam and Iraq.

Bush will have his surge but it wont work. The Iraqis will attack the Green zone or a large number of US troops will be killed and then it will be all over.

We will be pulling out. The blame will be squarely on Bushco. With the pending investigations and a 2008 bombing like the 1983 beirut bombing will occur and you can kiss the republican party goodbye.

Its called blood all on your hands. No matter how you wish to place it on the Democrats.






You people have no shame just like YOUR prez.
on Feb 06, 2007
Like I said, Liberals have no sense of humor.
on Feb 06, 2007

I really feel sorry for you Republicans. Putting your party before America.

You people deserve to be in Guantanomo.

You are the real enemy combatants of this country.

Wishing to pin the worst military strategic decision in the history of this country on the Democrats.

Why you support the party who made the decision.

How stupid or un-American are you. No wonder you watch Fox.


Hey dreamer, wake up! The "only" reason we're in the mess we're in, is because the DEMOCATS won't turn our forces lose and let them do what is required to win just like Vietnam. And BTW don't go look on how many democrats gave their okay on this in the first place. It'll just make you cry!
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