A Republican Strategy for ‘08
Disclaimer: First, the following should be read with a grain of salt. I am not seriously advocating any of this. It’s just a “thought exorcise” designed to come up with an alternative solution to the coronation of Hillary I. Furthermore, I’m not endorsing any particular candidate. I’m just suggesting who I think would have a good shot at going up against the Democrats under these conditions.
OK, here is my take on the situation. Bush is a lame duck. He couldn’t convince the American people to vote for free milk and cookies right now. The Democrats have the house locked up, but their grip on the Senate is not tight enough to get any real agenda passed. So what does that leave us with? Two years of the Democrats positioning themselves to inherit the White House in ’08. So for the next two years, we have Congress using every trick they can think of to force Bush to abandon Iraq and basically make him into the poster child of all reasons to never vote Republican again. Meanwhile, absolutely nothing will get done either domestically or abroad that will actually help the country as opposed to one political agenda or another.
Looking ahead to ’08, Hillary is the anointed one and Obama is playing spoiler so that any more serious threats to her won’t have enough money or bandwidth (broadcast or otherwise) to mount a serious challenge. The only way a Republican can get elected in the general election is to be the anti-Bush, but none will survive the primary to get there. I don’t see how any other result can come about unless either the US starts having amazing successes abroad, or something so devastating happens to our country (for instance, the EU, China, and Russia ally and invade New York) that it changes the political equation in a very unexpected way. Unless…
Let things go the way they are. Get the House to defund the war. The ideal timetable for this would be around April or May of this year. Bush fights back by taking it to the Supreme Court protesting on the grounds that Congress is infringing on his Constitutional powers as CinC. Now assume that Bush looses. Bush and Cheney then resign in protest. That would force the Speaker of the House – Nancy Pelosi to become the President.
How exactly does this help anything? Well, first off, it places the burden of bringing the troops home on the Democrats. The resulting chaos and bloodshed will be on their hands. OK, maybe it’s the coward’s way out, but it’s one that preserves some credibility for what comes next. Second, Pelosi would be spending the first six months or so putting in place a cabinet or be forced to work with the one already in place, Condi Rice and all. Chances are, she would not be able to get any kind of agenda going for the remainder of ’07, which takes us into what is the sweetest part of this plan.
Right now, Hillary Clinton is tapping every group she and Bill can think of for cash for her election run. I can’t imagine even W at his best being able to raise the kind of money Hillary is going to throw at the ’08 election. And with Obama keeping the field thinned for her, she isn’t going to spend a lot of it in the Primary. Just think how that would change if suddenly she had to defeat an incumbent, first female President Pelosi in the Primaries. On the other hand, Nancy Pelosi would find funding harder to come by because those who would normally be counted on to back a female Democratic candidate would have already made donations and commitments to Hillary. And as an added bonus, the best and brightest of the Democratic campaign managers are going to be split between the two as well. The entire party would be forced to make a decision: The anointed one or the incumbent. And the country gets to watch one hell of a cat fight watching Pelosi and Clinton take each other apart.
The one risk is that Pelosi wouldn’t run. I think that Hillary would go through with it no matter what because she doesn’t have another 10 years to wait. But Pelosi could back out in the name of party unity. But, human nature being what it is, I’m betting that if Nancy were handed the Presidency, she couldn’t just walk away from it after such a brief spell.
OK, so where does that leave the Republicans? The script would go like this. Put up Rudy Giuliani as the anointed one for the Republican candidate. Right now, he’s leading the polls based largely on charisma and reputation for 9/11. Perhaps let it be known that someone like Newt Gengrich would be his running mate to make the candidate more palatable to the conservative base. He is perhaps the one Republican candidate who could challenge Hillary in New York. He may not be able to win the state from her, but he can force her to spend a lot of time and money there. If Pelosi came out the winner, he just might be able to take New York outright, but sacrifices any hope of California. Of course, California is probably a complete loss to any Republican right now anyway.
Giuliani should probably position himself by redefining himself as in favor of the War on Terrorism rather than the War on Terror and be prepared to contrast himself against Bush and how the war in Iraq was fought. He is probably the only Republican candidate in ‘08 who could present himself as tough on foreign policy but having differences with Bush on how the war was handled with any credibility in the minds of the voters.
I think that Giuliani’s image as a strong leader contrasted against a Pelosi-Clinton knock down drag out fight in the primaries would give the Republicans the best shot at recapturing DC in ’08.